Date of Award

2019

Publisher

North Dakota State University

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Awarded

Master of Science (MS)

Program

Agribusiness and Applied Economics

Department

Agribusiness and Applied Economics

College

Agriculture, Food Systems and Natural Resources

Faculty Advisor

Miljkovic, Dragan

Description

This thesis examines the relationship between spot prices, futures prices, and ending stocks for storable commodities. We used Granger causality and DAGs to determine causal relationships and cointegration tests to determine long-run relationships. We use VAR/VECM and consider innovation accounting techniques to see how volatility in one market affects the price behavior and volatility in the other market. Results suggest that for agricultural commodities, innovations in futures price permanently increase the level of spot prices while accounting for much of spot price variance over time. For national oil, shocks to futures price decrease the level of spot price in the long run. In regional oil markets, there are transitory impulse responses. Futures price plays a small role in the volatility of spot prices for oil over time. Overall results are mixed, with oil suggesting futures markets may have a price stabilizing effect and agriculture commodities indicating spot price destabilization.

Rights

NDSU policy 190.6.2

Rights Link

https://www.ndsu.edu/fileadmin/policy/190.pdf

Handle Identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/10365/29795

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