Date of Award

2008

Publisher

North Dakota State University

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Awarded

Master of Science (MS)

Program

Agribusiness and Applied Economics

Department

Agribusiness and Applied Economics

College

Agriculture, Food Systems and Natural Resources

Faculty Advisor

Wilson, William W.

Description

This study develops a real options model of agbiotechnology and is applied to three genetically modified (GM) traits. Each trait is evaluated as growth options where technical or marketing milestones must be completed before management can exercise the option to invest further in trait development. The real options values are evaluated by employing a binomial tree which is simulated using distributions for random elements within stages of the growth option. Mean option values were negative for the discovery stage for fusarium-resistant wheat and for all but the regulatory submission stage for Roundup Ready wheat. The length of the regulatory submission stage had the greatest negative impact on the value of the option while the ability of the firm to maximize technology-use-fees had the greatest positive impact. Additionally, traits adapted to crops with larger potential market size are more likely to be in the money than traits developed for smaller market segments.

Rights

NDSU policy 190.6.2

Rights Link

https://www.ndsu.edu/fileadmin/policy/190.pdf

Handle Identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/10365/29761

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