The United States and Brazil - Spatial and Logistical Interdependence for Soybean Shipments to China
Date of Award
2021
Publisher
North Dakota State University
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Awarded
Master of Science (MS)
Program
Agribusiness and Applied Economics
Department
Agribusiness and Applied Economics
College
Agriculture, Food Systems and Natural Resources
Faculty Advisor
Wilson, William
Description
Analyzing the United States/Brazil competition for market share of Chinese soybean imports requires a detailed, stochastic approach. Using data from 2013 to 2019, this thesis attempts to model and explain the change in market share for each producing country as different variables fluctuate or enter the equation. Using five origins in each country, the PNW, USG, Santos, Paranaguá, and the northern arc of ports in Brazil, various transportation routes from origin to port, congestion and quality metrics, and ocean freight, a least-cost optimized Monte Carlo simulation is performed using time-series forecasting distributions for monthly variables. A distribution of outcomes for changes in market share over the crop year demonstrates that Chinese importers favor U.S, soybeans from December to March and Brazil soybeans the alternate months. In the base case Brazil captures almost two-thirds of China’s soybean imports. Sensitivity analyses include trade disputes, quality discounts, improved infrastructure, and congestion costs.
Recommended Citation
Scheresky, Gwen Marie, "The United States and Brazil - Spatial and Logistical Interdependence for Soybean Shipments to China" (2021). Agribusiness and Applied Economics. 151.
https://digitalcommons.ndsu.edu/agribusiness-applied-econ/151
Rights
NDSU policy 190.6.2
Rights Link
https://www.ndsu.edu/fileadmin/policy/190.pdf
Handle Identifier
https://hdl.handle.net/10365/32583