Date of Award

2013

Publisher

North Dakota State University

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Awarded

Master of Science (MS)

Program

Statistics

Department

Statistics

College

Science and Mathematics

Faculty Advisor

Magel, Rhonda

Description

This thesis looks at common factors that have the largest impact on winning games in the NHL. Data was collected from regular season games for all teams in the NHL over seven seasons. Logistic and least squares regressions were performed to create a win probability model and a goal margin model to predict the outcome of games. Discriminant analysis was also used to determine significant factors over the course of an entire season. Save percentage margin, shot margin, block margin, short-handed shot margin, short-handed faceoff percentage, and even-handed faceoff percentage were found to be significant influences on individual game wins. Total goals, total goals against and takeaway totals for a season were enough to correctly predict whether a team made the playoffs 87% of the time. The accuracies of the models were then tested by predicting the outcome of games from the 2012 NHL regular season.

Rights

NDSU Policy 190.6.2

Rights Link

https://www.ndsu.edu/fileadmin/policy/190.pdf

Handle Identifier

https://hdl.handle.net/10365/26988

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