Date of Award
2020
Publisher
North Dakota State University
Document Type
Dissertation
Degree Awarded
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Program
Transportation and Logistics
Department
Transportation, Logistics and Finance
College
Business
Faculty Advisor
Szmerekovsky, Joseph
Description
This dissertation develops a mixed integer linear program to establish the upper and lower bounds of the Alphorn of Uncertainty. For a project manager, planning for uncertainty is a staple of their jobs and education. But the uncertainty associated with a catastrophic event presents difficulties not easily controlled with traditional methods of risk management. This dissertation brings and modifies the concept of a project schedule as a bounded “Alphorn of Uncertainty” to the problem of how to reduce the risk of a catastrophic event wreaking havoc on a project and, by extension, the company participating in that project. The dissertation presents new mathematical models underpinning the methods proposed to reduce risk as well as simulations to demonstrate the accuracy of those models. The dissertation further assesses the complexity of the models and thus their practical application. Finally, the dissertation presents strategies to reduce the risk to a project of a catastrophic event using the upper bound of the Alphorn as the measure of risk.
Recommended Citation
Simonson, Peter Douglas, "Limiting Financial Risk from Catastrophic Events in Project Management" (2020). Transportation Logistics and Finance. 47.
https://digitalcommons.ndsu.edu/transport-logistics-finance/47
Rights
NDSU policy 190.6.2
Rights Link
https://www.ndsu.edu/fileadmin/policy/190.pdf
Handle Identifier
https://hdl.handle.net/10365/31939